The scorecard
Accuracy, day by day
Our wait log
How the forecast and the grade work
- The forecast. For each ride and each clock hour, the median of that ride’s average posted wait in the same hour on the same weekday over the past 4 weeks (needs at least 2 such days). With less history, the median of the same hour over the last 7 days (needs at least 3 days). If neither is available, we don’t forecast that hour. No crowd calendars, no hand edits.
- Locked in advance. The forecast for a day is saved the evening before and can’t be overwritten. The scorecard only grades forecasts saved before the day began, and you can download each one (link under the scorecard).
- The actual. The average of the posted standby waits we logged in that hour while the ride was operating. We check roughly every 20–30 minutes. Hours when a ride was down or closed the whole time aren’t graded, and neither are Lightning Lane or Express return times.
- Official park hours only. We grade only clock hours that fall entirely inside each park’s official operating hours for that date, from the park schedule published via ThemeParks.wiki (Pacific time for Disneyland). Early Entry, party nights and other ticketed events, extra hours and anything after close are not graded.
- The grade. A ride-hour is “within 10” when the forecast and the posted average are no more than 10 minutes apart. We also publish the average miss in minutes and whether the forecast ran high or low, because a percentage alone can hide a lopsided day.
- Scope. Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, Animal Kingdom, Universal Studios Florida, Islands of Adventure, Epic Universe, Disneyland Park and Disney California Adventure. Volcano Bay isn’t graded (water-park waits behave differently). Disneyland hours are Pacific time; everything else is Eastern.
- What it isn’t. Posted waits are the parks’ own estimates and often run longer than the real wait. This grades how well we predict the posted number, not how long you’ll stand in line.